Choosing a college is not the same as knowing whether it will pay off (be worth it financially). Some degrees leave people with loan bills that are bigger than their first-year paycheck. Others lead to jobs employers are actually hiring for.
Recent EDsmart analysis of federal education data and National Student Clearinghouse records found a sharp split by field. In Fine Arts, typical student debt is about 1.6 times one year of typical pay. That means many borrowers owe more in loans than they earn in a full year at their first job.
Picture it this way: if typical first-year pay is $35,000, many Fine Arts borrowers owe around $56,000. In Nursing, typical debt is about 0.3 times one year of pay. At the same $55,000 first-year pay, that is roughly $16,500 in loans, not $56,000.
About 40.4 million U.S. adults started college but never finished a degree or certificate. That is like paying tuition for two years and leaving without the credential employers list on job posts. Below, workforce leaders, counselors, and college enrollment experts answer six questions families ask before they sign up.
These answers came from a June 2026 expert outreach on college return on investment (ROI). ROI means whether what you spend on school is worth what you earn afterward. We grouped the answers by the decision you are facing.
Each section names one or two experts. Shorter tips from other responders appear as Also noted when they add a useful check without repeating the main answer. For the full data report behind the numbers cited here, see The Credential That Didn’t Pay (Issue 2 in EDsmart’s Future of Higher Education and Work series).
Key takeaways
- Major and program usually matter more than school brand when you weigh first-year pay against debt.
- Debt check: divide expected debt by typical early pay for your program. Above 1 is a warning (example: $40,000 ÷ $30,000 = 1.3).
- Finish if you can. Debt without a degree or certificate is often the hardest outcome to fix.
- Use federal education data for your exact school and program, not a national “college graduate” average.
- Run loan math for the city where you plan to work. First-year pay can differ by 30–40% across metros.
Contents
Answers reflect each expert’s views. We did not verify every claim. Use federal education data and each school’s net price calculator to confirm numbers before you enroll.
How to use this FAQ
Read the six sections in order if you are comparing programs. Or jump to the question that matches where you are in the process.
- Comparing two programs? Start with questions 1, 4, and 5.
- Already enrolled or thinking about leaving? Start with questions 2 and 3.
- Deciding between a community college and a four-year school? Start with question 6.
- Want a short list? Skip to the seven-question checklist at the bottom.
1. Why do some college credentials fail to pay off financially?
Mark Friend is company director at Classroom365 and a former hiring manager at Rothschild Bank and the British Council. He says the problem often shows up at the first job, not on the diploma:
“Credentials fail when the degree is awarded and the debt is incurred, but workplace readiness was never demonstrated. Programs that do not adapt their curriculum to genuine employer needs keep producing graduates who cannot convert their qualification into a salary that justifies what they borrowed.”
Friend has sat on the employer side of hiring for nearly 30 years. He says this happens again and again. He has seen graduates from highly ranked universities who could not build a basic spreadsheet or deliver a client presentation in week one.
He has also seen candidates from less famous schools who outperformed them in the same hiring round. The degree was awarded. The debt was real. The job-ready skills were not.
Yad Senapathy is founder of the Project Management Training Institute. He describes the same problem as a broken link between a credential and what employers actually require. When employers name a credential in a job posting (he points to the Project Management Professional certification as an example), the path to payback is clear.
The posting tells you what is required. Many degree programs do not work that way:
“Many credentials fail financially because they are not connected to hiring decisions. When a credential never appears in the job posting, the degree alone does not create payback—employers filter on what they list, not on the diploma by itself.”
Senapathy gives a common example. A communications graduate may compete for the same marketing analyst job as someone with a three-month data analytics certificate. When the posting asks for SQL and dashboard skills, the longer general degree does not automatically win. It may have cost $80,000 and four years versus a shorter, cheaper skills path.
He also says many schools do not show typical pay before students enroll, even though federal outcome data on earnings is public. Learning after graduation that typical pay is $32,000, not the $55,000 you assumed, is too late to rethink the loan.
Also noted: Steve Case, a financial services consultant, says the money damage often starts when actual pay after college is lower than expected, not just at enrollment. Lidija Elezovic, a school counselor and psychologist at Education World Wide, adds that students who pick a major because of family pressure or status, not fit, may finish a degree but struggle to stay in the field.
Several borrower advisors say to check starting salaries in your area before you borrow. The same entry-level role might pay about $48,000 in Austin and about $34,000 in a smaller market. That is a 30–40% swing.
A national “average graduate salary” of $45,000 can mislead you if you plan to work where typical pay is closer to $32,000. Your loan payment does not shrink because the national average looked fine on paper.
2. What happens if you leave school with debt but no degree?
Sergio Pantoja Torres is a college counselor at Education World Wide. He works with international students on IB, AP, NCAA eligibility, and U.S. and European admissions. He says signing up is only the first step:
“Students are often sold on college before they see the math. Enrollment is just the beginning. Completion, program quality, cost, location, work experience, and labor demand are what decide if that enrollment was a smart choice. A degree is like a plane ticket—the destination and route both matter; an expensive ticket on the wrong route is still a bad deal.”
Pantoja Torres adds that some careers change the math mid-stream. A student who wants psychology plus clinical work should plan for graduate school before borrowing for the bachelor’s. A four-year bill of $80,000 is not the full story if licensure needs another $60,000 and three more years.
“The biggest risk is debt that outruns early salary. Do not ask only where you can get in—ask where you can finish successfully, with licensing or job placement that matches the cost.”
— Sergio Pantoja Torres
Mark Friend puts the financial consequence in blunt terms:
“A student’s largest financial loss is to not complete their credential—and that happens far more often than college marketing suggests. Colleges promote enrollment numbers but hide completion rates. Borrowing to start a degree and dropping out before you finish is like financing a car and walking home from the dealer—you carry the payment without the asset.”
Friend argues that colleges should report dropout outcomes as clearly as they report admission numbers. Until that happens, enrollment will keep getting sold as success, even when the credential never arrives.
Also noted: Case compares dropout debt to a mortgage where at least you still have a house. With an unfinished degree, there is often no pay raise to help cover the loan balance.
Borrower advisors say to treat college loans like any other loan. If you expect to earn $36,000 and owe $400 a month on loans, that is more than 13% of gross pay before rent, food, or a car. Rethink the program or the price before the first bill arrives.
3. Why do many colleges talk about enrollment more than completion?
Rachel Spencer is executive vice president at AccessU, a firm that advises colleges on enrollment. She says many four-year campuses struggle after the deposit is paid:
“The goal post has shifted, but enrollment strategies and messaging have not fully caught up. Many colleges still market a traditional college experience as the ultimate goal. When students arrive, the connection and infrastructure are not in place to retain them and guide them toward jobs that match what employers want. As a result, many students graduate with no clear pathway to employment.”
Spencer says finishing college takes more than one office. Schools need child care help, food support, tutoring, and career advising that continues after year one. When that support is thin, colleges still celebrate enrollment numbers in public.
But the job outcome depends on finishing and turning the credential into work. A campus that admits 40% of applicants but graduates only half of those students is a different story than the glossy viewbook suggests.
“The student journey is not linear, and it does not stop at enrollment. That is a significant missing piece for many four-year institutions.”
— Rachel Spencer, AccessU
Kristin Gubser is associate vice president of workforce strategies at GateWay Community College. She says finishing still sends a signal employers notice, even when hiring focuses on skills:
“Completion signals persistence and the professional skills employers want—communication, problem-solving, creativity, adaptability—not just technical training in a major.”
Gubser also pushes back on the idea that employers want only technical skills or only humanities skills. Hiring trends swing back and forth, she says, but employers still want well-rounded graduates.
A good college experience can build judgment and teamwork skills that are hard to replace with automation: moral judgment, ethical decision-making, building trust, and leading people in real settings, not just major-specific technique.
Friend adds a policy point. Funding and marketing still reward filling seats more than finishing degrees. Until completion rates are reported as clearly as admission rates, families will keep comparing schools on how hard they are to get into, not on whether students like them actually graduate and earn.
4. What should families check before taking student loans?
Kristin Gubser says to treat ROI as a family budget and career plan, not a promise in a brochure:
“Look at the full cost of attendance—tuition, books, and living expenses. Build a diverse career plan: not every nurse works in a hospital, not every accountant works at a firm, not every artist is an entrepreneur. What non-traditional industries hire for your major? If you take on student loans, do starting earnings allow repayment at a reasonable share of income within a reasonable time? And does the campus offer the growth and engagement you want—college is academic and personal development together.”
Michael Benoit works with contractors on financial risk. He says choosing a major should be as serious as buying a house:
“Choosing a major should be done as seriously as buying a house. The first number every student should find is median earnings after completion. Estimated debt divided by that number—if it is greater than one, you are behind before you start.”
Benoit adds a comparison families often skip. A student can finish with a degree, still owe $45,000, and still land at $38,000 because the major’s typical pay is soft in that market.
Meanwhile, an electrician apprentice might reach $55,000 by year three while some bachelor’s fields sit near $42,000 until year five. The question is not “degree or no degree” in general. It is whether this degree at this price is likely to pay off on typical terms.
Rami Sneineh is co-president at Insurance Navy. He says too many families enroll before they run the math:
“Many students sign up without running the numbers first. Debt keeps rising, but salaries for some programs have not kept pace. The most prudent step is to check federal College Scorecard data for the school and program you are actually considering—not a national average or a generic ‘college graduate’ figure.”
Sneineh also warns against assuming a four-year path is always better. He has seen borrowers take on six-figure debt for a famous campus while a lower-cost in-state program led to the same job. The employer cared more about skill than sticker price.
Also noted: Case tells clients to decide like a careful borrower. Compare starting salary to monthly loan payments in the first three years after school.
Chad Silver, a tax attorney who works with borrowers in IRS debt cases, says he often sees about $80,000 in loans paired with $35,000 salaries after a student changed majors without redoing the math. He suggests keeping estimated loan payments below roughly 10% of expected first-year income before you sign.
On a $40,000 salary, 10% is $4,000 a year, or about $333 a month. If your estimated payment is $450, that is a quick warning before classes start.
5. Does the university name matter as much as the major?
Friend has hired graduates from top universities and mid-tier programs. He says families overweight prestige because it shows on a sweatshirt, not because employers ignore field and skill:
“There is a huge misconception that more education automatically means higher pay. What your degree is in has a much greater impact on long-term earnings than which institution you attend. Skills assessments and portfolios are replacing degree classifications as a primary filter for more employers than most universities acknowledge.”
He says universities still market the name on the diploma even when program-level job outcomes would tell a sharper story. Employers are adjusting faster than campus brochures:
“We are still encouraging students to pursue a name on their diploma rather than focusing on programs that have been proven to produce employment outcomes.”
— Mark Friend
Before you enroll, Friend recommends evidence over rank:
“Check employment rates and starting salaries for graduates of the exact program at that institution. Ask employers which credentials they hire for and which they ignore—that tells you more than a prospectus.”
Sneineh offers a borrower-side example:
“I have seen someone borrow six figures for a well-known school and land the same role as someone who spent far less on a different in-state program—the employer cared more about the skill than the sticker.”
Senapathy adds a hiring-desk view. When two people apply for the same job, the one whose skills match the posting exactly often wins. That person may not have the longer or costlier credential.
That is why program and skill fit usually beat brand when you measure payback. A $28,000 in-state IT program and a $120,000 private path can lead to the same junior developer role if both candidates pass the same skills test.
Tetiana Hnatiuk is former head of HR at software company Skylum. She describes a similar pattern in engineering hiring. Candidates from famous campuses sometimes need three to six months of internal retraining when portfolios show class assignments instead of shipped code.
Graduates from mid-tier or project-based programs with GitHub repos and live apps can contribute in weeks. Employers increasingly look at what you built, not only where you studied.
6. Do community colleges offer clearer ROI than four-year schools?
Spencer says the contrast shows up in enrollment trends and in how clearly schools define payoff:
“Community colleges we work with are not seeing the same enrollment declines as many four-year institutions because they focus on job placement and employer partnerships. They adapt programs to meet student needs and industry needs. Affordability is a factor, but it is not the only factor. Partnerships create faster pathways to well-paying jobs or transfer—with ROI defined more tangibly.”
At many four-year campuses, she says, the “traditional college experience” is still the main product, even when students need a clearer line from credential to job. Community colleges that partner directly with employers can update courses when hiring demand shifts.
Example: a college might add a semiconductor technician certificate when a local plant is hiring, with a stated starting wage band families can check up front. That makes the payoff story easier to audit before you enroll.
Kristin Gubser adds a workforce-credential view. Nationally recognized industry credentials are common in IT, trades and manufacturing, health care and nursing, and business and management. But recognition is not the same in every state. States are still expanding lists under Workforce Pell:
“When employers do not consistently hire for specific credentials, pay disparity follows. Families still need to ask whether a given certificate or degree is tied to hiring in their market—not just listed on a transcript.”
Gubser also points to new federal rules for program reviews. Undergraduate programs will need to show that typical graduate earnings beat typical earnings for people with only a high school diploma. Graduate programs will need to show earnings above typical earnings for people with a bachelor’s degree.
Schools that fail could lose access to federal aid. That does not replace your own check of program outcomes in federal education data. But it is one more reason to compare programs on pay results, not marketing copy.
Research from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce still finds a large lifetime earnings gap for people with a bachelor’s degree versus only a high school diploma. Gubser stresses that the gap depends on finishing and on whether local employers hire for the credential you earn.
She argues that employers share responsibility for clearer pipelines, not only colleges. When employers jump in and out of school partnerships, colleges and students feel the instability.
State policies that put economic-development tax breaks back into workforce training, equipment, and curriculum can keep programs current. Families should still verify that a local employer actually hires from the pathway they are buying.
Friend’s policy ideas align with Spencer’s employer-partnership theme: fund and measure completion, not just admission, and require clearer starting-salary disclosure when job posts list credentials as requirements.
For field-by-field debt and pay spreads, including Fine Arts near 1.6 times one year of typical pay versus Nursing near 0.3 times, see the data report: The Credential That Didn’t Pay.
Seven questions to ask before you commit
Drawn from the experts above. Use this as a one-page worksheet when you compare programs:
- Program, not brand: What do typical graduates from this program at this school earn, and how many get jobs? Look up your school and program in federal education data. Do not use a national average like “all college graduates earn $55,000.”
- Debt stress test: Divide estimated debt by typical early earnings. If the answer is above 1, that is a warning sign before day one. Example: $50,000 debt and $40,000 typical early pay equals 1.25.
- Completion odds: What share of students like you finish within six years? If only 45% finish but 85% get in, ask what happens to the rest who leave with debt but no credential.
- Full pathway cost: If the career needs graduate school or a license (for example, clinical psychology), is that included in your plan? Add bachelor’s cost, grad school cost, and lost wages during training years.
- Hiring filter: Do employers in your target area list this credential, or a specific license or certificate, in job postings? Search “entry level [major] [your city]” and read five recent posts.
- Regional pay: Can local starting salary cover loan payments in the first three years, not just on a national chart? A $350 payment on a $32,000 local salary hurts more than on a $48,000 offer.
- Other career paths: What industries hire this major beyond the obvious employers? A biology major might target biotech labs, not only pre-med tracks. Does the campus help you reach them?
About the experts
- Mark Friend, company director at Classroom365; former hiring manager at Rothschild Bank and the British Council; nearly 30 years on the employer side of graduate hiring and school technology strategy.
- Kristin Gubser, M.P.A., associate vice president of workforce strategies and external affairs at GateWay Community College (Maricopa County, Arizona); workforce credentials, employer partnerships, and federal accountability policy.
- Rachel Spencer, executive vice president and senior strategist at AccessU; college enrollment strategy, student retention, and community-college partnership models.
- Sergio Pantoja Torres, college counselor at Education World Wide; international admissions, AP/SAT/NCAA planning, and academic pathway design.
- Yad Senapathy, founder and CEO of the Project Management Training Institute; employer-recognized professional credentials and hiring-filter analysis.
- Rami Sneineh, co-president at Insurance Navy; borrower and household finance perspective on education debt.
- Michael Benoit, founder of ContractorBond.org; financial risk management for licensed trades and contractors.
- Steve Case, financial services consultant; long-term debt planning and education borrowing (cited in Also noted sections).
- Chad Silver, tax attorney and CEO at Silver Tax Group; borrower stress cases tied to education debt (cited in question 4).
- Lidija Elezovic, school counselor and psychologist at Education World Wide; career fit and student motivation (cited in question 1).
- Tetiana Hnatiuk, former head of HR at Skylum; engineering hiring and portfolio-based screening (cited in question 5).
Further reading
- The Credential That Didn’t Pay (EDsmart Issue 2 on debt, completion, and program stress using federal education and NSC data).
- The College ROI Divide (Issue 1 on program-level payoff versus enrollment).
- U.S. Department of Education college outcomes tool (earnings, debt, and completion by school and program).
- Some College, No Credential (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center).
- Best Universities methodology (how we rank schools on cost, completion, debt, and early earnings).